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Archive for the ‘market analysis’ Category

Markets Review for July 23, 2008 – Indecision Candle on the INDU, Gold/Oil Short-Term Oversold

Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008

Looking at the short term chart of the INDU I see a candle that starting to show some indecision. The index is also above the short-term regression downtrend channel which is usually bearish.

2008-07-23 231434-NYSE~$INDU-Candle One Month_1d

Gold – oh my! Gold took continued to take some serious beating today.

Despite this morning’s effort to go up it closed with a bearish candle again and is now very short-term oversold, below the regression channel.

2008-07-23 232039-ECBOT~@YG   AUG 08-Candle One Month_1d

The following is the weekly chart of Gold – when looking at this chart the current pullback is a small and healthy consolidation (although my account is currently hurting):

2008-07-23 232219-ECBOT~@YG   AUG 08-Candle 1y3m12d_1w 

GoldCorp and other mining stocks

The stock has been dropping for the last 3 days but with lower volume (which is not helping at this point). The next few days will be key. A lower low will force me to sell and get back at a later date.

2008-07-23 232308-TSE~G-Candle 3m26d_1d

2008-07-23 232437-ABX-Candle 3m26d_1d

2008-07-23 232453-AEM-Candle 3m26d_1d

Crude Oil – also short-term oversold. Note how Crude is below both regression channels. I believe a bounce is due soon.

2008-07-23 232527-NYMEX~@QMU8-Candle 3m23d_1d

Weekly chart for Crude Oil – the recent consolidation also looks health for Oil when looking at the weekly time-frame.

2008-07-23 232633-NYMEX~@QMU8-Candle 1y3m12d_1w

Financials (XLF) – Although the financials have put a nice show lately, a quick look at the Weekly chart reminds us where it is and where it has been…. the direction is still DOWN!

XLF – daily chart

2008-07-23 232758-XLF-Candle 2m10d_1d

XLF – weekly chart

2008-07-23 232932-XLF-Candle 1y5m1d_1w

Good luck to you tomorrow.

Markets Review - July 22, 2008

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008

Stock Markets - short term overbought, short term bullish

  • INDU is short term oversold but could continue to the 11,800 level.
  • Today was a bulish candle but on low volume, a break of today’s low could take the index back to 11,000.

2008-07-22 221541-ECBOT~@YM   SEP 08-Candle One Month_1d

The weekly chart below still shows the index is oversold, or below the regression line.

2008-07-22 221851-ECBOT~@YM   SEP 08-Candle 1y12d_1w

Gold - short term oversold, short-term bearish

Gold was up sharply this morning but then reversed and closed around the 948 area.

2008-07-22 222209-ECBOT~@YG   AUG 08-Candle 2m_1d

Oil - could continue descent and test $120 level

Although oil is oversold on the daily time frame it still has some room to consolidate on the weekly chart and could test the $120 level.

2008-07-22 222323-NYMEX~@QMQ8-Candle 2m_1d

2008-07-22 222529-NYMEX~@QMQ8-Candle 1y12d_1w 

US Dollar - bullish bias

Looking at the weekly chart of the US Dollar Index below it looks as it’s trying to gain some strength and if it closes above the current flag it could attack the $75 barrier (upper channel). Any action above that point will likely be short-lived.

2008-07-22 223551-@DX#-Candle 1y3m12d_1w

Euro - neutral

Weekly chart shows a slight break of consolidation.

2008-07-22 224107-IDEALPRO~#EUR.USD-Candle 1y3m12d_1w

Canadian Dollar - trading in a range

2008-07-22 224425-IDEALPRO~#USD.CAD-Candle 1y3m12d_1w

Market Review for 07/22/2008

Monday, July 21st, 2008

Today I will look at the Dow Jones industrial using my favorite channel indicator, the linear regression channel.

Looking at the daily chart of the $INDU below it has bounced back from an overextended state (below thick red line) to a short-term overbought (above blue line). I’m not in the business of predicting here but if today’s high is taken out over the next few days it could go to the 11,900-12,000 area. If otherwise it drops below 11,200 it could retest the 11,000 area.

2008-07-22 000434-NYSE~$INDU-Candle 1m19d_1d 

Looking at the weekly chart below, the index is still oversold (below the long term regression channel). Again, it could potentially bounce back to the 12,000 level “if” today’s high is taken over the next few days.

2008-07-22 000707-NYSE~$INDU-Candle 1y8m29d_1w

Gold – Where’s gold at?

Looking at the short-term chart of the Gold Contract below it looks as the metal is still well positioned.

2008-07-22 002007-ECBOT~@YG   AUG 08-Candle 1m3d_1d 

This next chart is a 180 minutes chart. Note at how it has started pushing to the upside since yesterday and it has broken the consolidation channel today.

2008-07-22 001905-ECBOT~@YG   AUG 08-Candle 183h41m_180m

Finally, the weekly chart. A bullish flag, bounced from the middle regression channel line and is now close to 1,000.

2008-07-22 001905-ECBOT~@YG   AUG 08-Candle 1y3m12d_1w

The Money Masters Videos – A must see!

Monday, July 21st, 2008

One of the blog readers (Peter) recommended these videos. They are a bit long (1h 43m and 1h 45m) but are a “must see”. I gained a lot of insights from them.

Summary - The Money Masters the documentary discuss the topics of money (as it relates to central banking and rational reserve banking), debt, taxes and their development throughout the modern world. [edit] Private central banking and fractional reserve banking The documentary criticizes the control aspects of modern centralized banking systems and regulation. The film uses as evidence the history of money and banking, showing the viewer how central banks came to be what they are today, and how they operate. It supports its assertions by references and quotations from past Presidents and major players in the banking industry. [edit] Media control The film contends that by the end of World War I private central banks owned and controlled much of America’s large media, paper and film outlets, and that they achieved this through the large consolidation of wealth generated by Fractional-reserve banking and later a fractional based finance system. The film contends this alleged near-monopoly of the financial system goes largely unnoticed or redacted from the human history because of the control of human information exchange through this mainstream media ownership. [edit] Tax The film touches briefly on the U.S. Federal income tax. See also Tax protester constitutional arguments. [edit] Monetary Reform Act By way of conclusion, the film presents an option for a different kind of monetary policy for the United States of America…

Money Masters – Part 1 of 2 – 120 minuteson Google Video

Money Masters – Part 2 of 2 – 105 minutes – on Google Video

Thanks Peter!